Retired after serving in the Nepal Army for more than three decades, Purna Silwal has deep knowledge and experience in national security, foreign strategy, and many other issues. Silwal, who has also played an important role in formulating Nepal's national security policy, has published a new book covering various topics. He has brought out many issues due to the philosophy, values, national interest, and challenges of the establishment of the state of Nepal, political instability.
Silwal has done extensive research and study on the politicization of Nepal's security forces, military-civilian relations, external influence and interference in Nepal's internal affairs, and the Nepal strategy of neighboring India and China. Edited excerpt from a conversation with Silval in the same book:
Where did the retired person from the top of the Nepal Army get the inspiration to write a book on political instability, national security, and foreign policy?
I am inspired to write a book called Nepal's Instability Condom (Mystery of Nepal's Instability) by the seven-decade cycle of political instability in Nepal and its impact on economic, social, diplomatic, and national interests. I started this research to find out the reasons for this.
Nepal is one of the most volatile and poor countries in South Asia. There have been repeated political and armed battles for regime change, in which the influence of foreign powers has been decisive, but Nepal's national interest has not been strengthened.
In the last 70 years, Nepal has been the most volatile, uncertain, and politically fluid country in South Asia. This is the seventh constitution since 1948. None of the prime ministers, whether appointed by the king or elected by the parliament, could complete their term.
The country has had 50 prime ministers, including an executive king who ruled directly from 1951 to 2017. On average, there is one prime minister every 16 months. Meanwhile, only 16 people have become prime ministers in India, 26 in Pakistan, and 21 in Bangladesh. Political instability and armed conflict dragged foreign and non-state actors into Nepal's domestic affairs.
The aspirations of the people for livelihood, development of the country, economic prosperity, and other issues of concern have not been addressed. When you return to Nepal from abroad, the feeling that Nepal is poorer than the country you returned from is evident from the journey from the airport. People are curious as to why this happened, my country will say why this happened.
Nepal is the oldest country in South Asia, but it is also weak in terms of national security, foreign intervention, and poverty. I have been thinking for a long time about why this is happening. I have also been writing many articles in the national interest.
Stability and national security are intertwined. If there is stability, there will be economic development. It has been nine years since the current Prime Minister of Bangladesh came to power. When he was the Prime Minister, the GDP there was the same as that of Nepal. Now, Bangladesh has overtaken India.
Economic development in Nepal is due to instability. I have written this book for the purpose of conducting research on the reasons behind Nepal's instability, weakening national security, foreign interference in internal affairs, and increasing economic dependence, how to get Nepal out of this maze, and to inform the policymakers and the people about it.
What are the main topics covered in the book?
The book openly discusses the philosophy and vision of the establishment of the Nepali nation, what are our core values, what are our national interests and where both these threats come from internal and external sources, and how our concept of national security and stability has evolved. Has been done.
We still have some strengths behind our existence as an independent and autonomous country, it is also a matter of what that strength is. It gives knowledge on how to make Nepal a strong, stable, and prosperous country now.
The next paragraph deals with the political instability that has developed in Nepal, especially since 2007. In this book, an attempt has been made to delve deeper into the reasons behind the collapse of the constitutional monarchy and the destabilization of the republican system.
The next paragraph discusses the negative impact on the stability and security of the country if the civil-military relations are not good and concludes that instability will increase if there is no civilian control over the army in a democratic system.
The next paragraph discusses how the state fought the Maoist armed insurgency, the foreign assistance the Maoists received during the conflict, the political mistakes made by the state, and the contribution of the Nepal Army to national security.
The most interesting paragraph 6 discusses in detail the impact of geography and geopolitics on Nepal, India's main national interest in Nepal, and the strategies it has adopted to achieve it. Similarly, the book also provides an analytical analysis of Nepal's interests in India and the strategies adopted by Nepal.
Similarly, what national interests China has in Nepal and what strategies it has been pursuing to achieve them, and Nepal-US and Nepal-UK strategic and security relations are also analyzed in detail in this paragraph. As it is an exploratory book, each paragraph combines various topics with established principles and examples from foreign countries.
There is also the issue of external interference in Nepal's internal affairs. What is its status?
From the time of King Ran Bahadur Shah, the process of gaining power based on external power has started. The Rana maintained the deep sovereignty and integrity of the country despite the internal oppression of the people by maintaining a deep friendship with the British Empire.
After India became independent, the situation changed completely. External interference began to increase. Three powers emerged in Nepal. The monarchy that used to be in Khopi also came out as a separate power. Similarly, the democratic power Nepali Congress emerged, and the communist power was also born.
The political goals of these three powers are completely different. The goal of the monarchy was how to strengthen itself and gain power and the liberal democracy of the Nepali Congress. The goal of the communists was to take the country to communism anyway. Since these three powers do not meet, they have moved forward in parallel to their respective destinations.
In India, there is no difference between the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party on the issue of the system. Similarly, in the United States, there is no dispute between Republicans and Democrats over the system. Nepal has never been stable due to the conflict between three rival ideologies.
Political stability would have been maintained in Nepal if everyone had considered the same system but had different views only on economic prosperity and how to strengthen the country.
Their priority is to change the system, they have the thought and goal that the country will develop only if the system they want comes.
The monarchy would strengthen the monarchy, the communists would bring the communist system and the Congress would bring the pluralistic democratic system. Even after entering the peace process, the Maoists were trying to bring about the system they wanted. Different destinations of Madhesi parties have emerged. As long as there is no agreement between the parties on the system, political instability will continue.
Apart from communism, all kinds of political systems have been used in Nepal. However, even a single majority government of the Communist Party of Nepal could not provide stability. Not all the systems used have provided stability and prosperity. Its inner and outer causes and effects are explained in the book.
There is a tendency to seek power with the support of external forces and also to seek external help to survive after gaining power. The Rana rule has lasted for 104 years due to external assistance. Tribhuvan and the Nepali Congress also changed the system with outside help.
When the Nepali Congress tried to revolt peacefully, it was Nehru who put pressure on the armed movement. Since then, India seems to have supported KI Singh's revolt. India also seems to have helped the Khampa insurgency.
India seems to have tacitly supported the Maoists on the condition that they use Indian land and not interfere with their interests with the Indian government. I have presented the issues including Ram Raja Prasad Singh's bomb-making training in India with footnotes.
India's support is seen in all the armed and political movements in Nepal. But internal political actors are responsible for this. It did not come by itself, it was brought by the political parties. External actors are invited by internal actors for their own selfish ends.
The subject of political interference in the security forces is also in the book. What is the situation?
There is not much political interference in the affairs of the Nepal Army, but it seems that the elected government has not taken ownership over the army. There may be some dissatisfaction with the work done by the top commanders, there may be some external pressure but there has been no political interference.
The government must maintain control over the security forces through constitutional provisions, laws, policy directives, and good practice. When micromanaged, it weakens the security forces. The tendency to use the army and police for the benefit of the monarchy, political parties, any faction, and leadership since 1990 has eroded their willpower and professionalism.
At the time of writing the 1990 constitution, there was a tussle to keep the Nepal Army under its control. During the process of writing the constitution, the king sought some means to maintain his traditional control. For this, the National Security Council was established, but it could not take strategic decisions when necessary, nor could it mobilize the army. Ultimately, it damaged the monarchy and the two-pillar system.
The early years of the conflict saw a kind of competition between the security forces. Extreme politicization took place in the police and the National Investigation Department. Attempts were made to politicize the counter-agency campaign and take institutional and political advantage. This has been done by both the court and the political parties. This game was also seen in the case of CK Raut and the Biplav group. These topics are covered in the book.
What was the state of foreign aid in the Maoist movement during the study?
Armed rebellion in any country cannot succeed without foreign assistance. Terrorism is a different matter, but politically motivated armed conflict is supported by like-minded state and non-state forces. Due to the open borders, every political power seems to have used Indian land and sought support in the movement. The Congress has fought based on India, the Maoists have done the same. No party should be supported by a foreign power until it has gained power, but its power seems to have supported it after crossing a point. My argument is that the Maoists couldn't carry out any political activity inside India and use Indian soil without being outside India's spy radar.
Have you studied in-depth about the blockade imposed by India, have you also discussed it?
India has imposed five blockades on Nepal so far. The first economic embargo was imposed in 1962. The blockade was imposed to put pressure on King Mahendra to join the Nepali Congress. India lifted the blockade after China started a war with India. The blockade of 1971 was imposed by India after Nepal refused to sign the trade and transit agreement.
The blockade of 1989 was meant to teach lessons about trade, transit, and arms imports from China, and to support the people's movement in Nepal. During the 2006 People's Movement, a military blockade was imposed by Western powers, including India.
The blockade of 2015 was forced to amend the constitution as demanded by India. In all political changes in Nepal, India has supported Nepal's opposition alliances and parties. However, the establishment has always called it external interference.
Since 1950, external forces seem to have provided assistance to all parties struggling to overthrow the system, including blockades. Such assistance is rare for Nepal's stability.
Is there any sign of Maoist armed conflict and unstable politics in Nepal?
